1. This is an imbalanced data set, as one class has a huge majority (>85%) over the other. Figure out how to solve common challenges of predictive analytics, including how to identify the right problem to focus on and how to distribute the information to the right people. 7 Which is the best example of customer feedback? Lets take a healthcare example to predict if a patient needs to be screened for cancer. For example, if you want to know how confident you should be about whether Brexit will occur in October 2019, you can try making predictions about (a) whether there will be a general election in October 2019, (b) whether parliament will allow the UK to leave the EU without a deal, and (c) whether the Prime Minister in power is willing to ask for an extension to the Brexit date (check out this. This new doctrine rested on the concept of holding frontline positions lightly with machine gunners, with successively stronger defensive positions echeloned in depth. These cookies ensure basic functionalities and security features of the website, anonymously. Well, the. This theory made Ludendorff popular with the nationalists (supporters of state power) who were coming to power in Germany during the early 1920s. Ludendorff, along with Hindenburg, was responsible for the decisive defeat of Russian forces and for the creation of a vast state of German military occupation in Eastern Europe during World War I. Ludendorff was pivotal in the creation and diffusion of the fictitious Stab-in-the-Back myth, which blamed Jews, liberals, communists, democrats, and war profiteers for the defeat of Germany in World War I. Ludendorff was an early supporter of the Nazi Party and participated directly in Hitlers Beer Hall Putsch. And as young Erich gobbled up military histories filled with romantic legends and nationalist nonsense about Prussias struggles against Napolon or its heroic defeat of the evil French in the Franco-Prussian War, his nationalistic fervor soon eclipsed that of his parents. Predictions About the Future Facts 42. First, it was, in many ways the realization of the idea ofLebensraum that Adolf Hitler and his Nazi Party would seek to accomplish during World War II. From that point on, Ludendorff became the true driving force behind the German war effort, as Hindenburg deferred to him on virtually every decision. Disguising himself in a false beard, Ludendorff fled to Sweden to write his extraordinarily dishonest memoirs. In the realms of operations, strategy and politics, Ludendorffs baleful influence wreaked havoc on Germany over the course of the war, while the seeds he planted would eventually support the rise of Adolf Hitler and an even more disastrous German defeat. Future Lt. Gen. Leo Geyr von Schweppenburg, who attended the Kriegsakademie immediately before World War I, said as much in a letter to military historian Basil Liddell Hart after World War II: You will be horrified to hear that I have never read Clausewitz or [Hans] Delbrck or [Karl] Haushofer. Weve also compiled some simple tips to help you make more accurate predictions, which you can read below. Reading Strategy: Prediction. Politically, Ludendorff continued to meddle in the Reichs internal affairs. Ludendorff died of cancer in 1937, but his anti-democratic and antisemitic Stab-in-the-Back contention remained a powerful weapon in the Nazi propaganda arsenal. Furthermore, we have a full podcast episode about forecasting the things that matter that you may like: Click here to access other streaming options and show notes. Course Hero is not sponsored or endorsed by any college or university. In some medical practices, for example, it might be difficult for doctors to receive feedback on the accuracy of their diagnoses, particularly if they have to rely solely on their patients to provide it. Add more data. It is important for teachers to encourage children to record clues that either support or deny their predictions. As World War I became increasingly desperate for the Germans, Ludendorff planned a last massive offensive in 1918. The Calibrate Your Judgment app helps you learn how to quantify judgments in the form of probabilities, also known as probabilistic forecasting. 2023 BrainRouter LTD. All rights reserved. Social psychologist Philip Tetlock, who is known for holding forecasting tournaments to test peoples ability to predict complex events, has found that the accuracy of an experts predictions actually has an inverse relationship to his or her self-confidence, renown, and depth of knowledge. Why, then, do we continue to listen to people who appear as experts on TV, get quoted in newspapers, and participate in punditry roundtables? They exploited the region's resources and meddled in political matters. Also, k-means is designed for continuous input. Hindenburg and Ludendorff insisted Germany should act decisively to drive Russia out of the war. // Take the quiz, HOW TO BECOME A DATA-DRIVEN PRODUCT MANAGER // NEW E-BOOK, THE FUNDAMENTALS OF MODERN PRODUCT MANAGEMENT // NEW WHITE PAPER, return on investment (ROI) of your predictive analytics, Product Love Podcast: Daniel Scrivner, CEO of Flow on Exploration, How to Build a Freemium Product That Actually Works, Find Your New Favorite (Free) Product Management Tool, PM Podcasters on Free Trials, Freemium Plans, and More, First Impressions Matter: Why New Users Should Discover Your Products A-ha! Moments Quickly, 5 Steps to Setting Your Product Operations Strategic Goals, 5 Product-led Strategies that will Protect Your Product Vision, How To Become a Data-Driven Product Manager, The 10 KPIs Every Product Leader Needs to Know, The Fundamentals of Modern Product Management. Here again, Ludendorff threw his weight behind the navys arguments by insisting the United States was incapable of fielding an effective army, much less deploying it to Europe to fight on the Western Front. So this conversation is about why some people, like Tetlock's "superforecasters," are so much better at predicting the future than everyone else and about the intellectual virtues . Is it even worth your time to build and deploy this model? Explain your response. For the rest we shall see. On the other hand, a prediction is the outcome you would observe if your hypothesis were correct. His comment to a senior industrialist in September 1916 sums up his understanding of strategy: The United States does not bother mein the least; I look upon a declaration of war by the United States with indifference. Even more astonishing is that in the fall of 1916 Ludendorff was seriously worried that Holland or Denmark might enter the war on the Allied side. Below are five ways students can practice making predictions as a class or individually. The deep dugouts and cellars often became fatal mantraps. What do you need to know to solve the problem, where are you going to find that out, what issues do you need to consider, what could effect things? They can also help students successfully make predictions about informational text by ensuring that students have sufficient background knowledge before beginning to read the text. Add more data. Retrieved September 18, 2015, from http://www.booksource.com/Departments/Resources/Teaching/reading-comprehension.aspx, Brock, A. As it turns out, it was profitable to increase wages, as. Specify and assess your regression model. Your predictive model tells you that M, W, X, and Y will fail. 10 predictions that Watkins got right. A series of major defeats threatened to knock Germanys main ally, Austria-Hungary, out of the conflict. ASTROLOGOIST Nostradamus, who is said to have correctly foreseen the Ukraine war, apparently predicted a doomsday World War Three scenario for 2023. A reader involved in making predictions is focused on the text at hand, constantly thinking ahead and also refining, revising, and verifying his or her predictions. For example, what historical inquiry, Discuss what responsibilities, if any, citizens should have related to being historically informed. Performance cookies are used to understand and analyze the key performance indexes of the website which helps in delivering a better user experience for the visitors. However, effective communication is less about talking and more about listening. And when the dust settled in 1913, the General Staff shipped off Colonel Ludendorff to command an infantry regiment in the west. When you want to make a prediction, try not to use words like inevitable, "probably," impossible, or maybe. Instead, approach the claim with a range and a probability. Making predictions is a strategy in which readers use information from a text (including titles, headings, pictures, and diagrams) and their own personal experiences to anticipate what they are about to read (or what comes next). The Russian First Army had stopped at Gumbinnen, while the Second Army rapidly advanced north. When you have taken this information into account, only then consider the specific evidence from your experience, and use this to adjust your final prediction. Receive new tools and articles in your inbox, 2018 ClearerThinking.org - created by Spark Wave. And her forthcoming book, Judgment and Decision-Making in the Lab and the World, will include a chapter on the psychology of prediction. Based on the likelihood of these events, you can try to estimate the probability of your initial question occurring. His parents were middle-class but strongly nationalist. In September he began casting about for someone to blame for the looming German defeat. The prediction accuracy of solving the regression tasks in the case of processing short data sets is an important task in various fields of medicine. Explain that we predict when we say what we think will happen in the future. Or, what usually happens in situations like this one? These men earned his respect and the respect of the nation. You see this in sports, with baseball teams that harness the power of data to build their rosters instead of relying solely on scouts to pick the best players. Learn the importance of making predictions,. To make these forecaststo conjure up mental pictures of whats aheadis one of the most remarkable things about being human. By now artillery was the great killer on the Western Front, so Ludendorff concentrated German reserves and defensive positions in rear areas, out of range of all but the heaviest Allied guns. Here are two simple ways you can encourage your child to put her prediction skills to work as a scientist. HistoryNet.com is brought to you by HistoryNet LLC, the worlds largest publisher of history magazines. The term feedback is used to describe the helpful information or criticism about prior action or behavior from an individual, communicated to another individual (or a group) who can use that information to adjust and improve current and future actions and behaviors. As a teen, Ludendorff made the obvious career choice of the German army. We would like to thank Crown Family Philanthropies and the Abe and Ida Cooper Foundation for supporting the ongoing work to create content and resources for the Holocaust Encyclopedia. History is a guide to navigation in perilous times. Originally published in the October 2008 issue of Military History. This problem has been solved! First, having argued that Germany was engaged in a battle of attrition against Britain, he launched a great offensive against the French at Verdun. Not only did our morale suffer, but in addition to fearful wastage in killed and wounded, we lost a large number of prisoners and much materiel.I attached great importance to what I learned about our infantryabout its tactics and preparation. The result, particularly the sinking of RMS Lusitania on May 7, had pushed America to the brink of war. Check one reason.-People do not have the knowledge to accurately predict what will happen.-People's imaginations are more powerful than scientific realities.-People imagine future technologies based on the technold ey currently have. Many companies make decisions based primarily on gut feeling. Retrieved June 13, 2015, from. If your predictive model performs much better than your guesstimates, you know its worth moving forward with that model. Other right-wing groups, such as the Pan-German League, picked up his rhetoric. Master the product-led strategies that help the worlds top companies win. By the summer of 1918, the German army could no longer defend itself on the Western Front. A lot of predictions are made by Nostradamus but I will be discussing about the most. Step #1: Clean Bad Data The principal of Garbage In, Garbage Out applies to forecasting as it does with many things. His career progressed steadily until 1912, on the eve of World War I, when a major budgetary fight broke out among the General Staff, the Imperial Navy and the Prussian War Ministry. Adding to his woes, in mid-June the British began preparatory bombardments on the Somme. Maybe the second version includes new data and you tweak the model to get 78% accuracy. Nostradamus supposedly predicted the terrorist attacks of 9/11. Once you deploy your predictive analytics, the feedback from end users will give you a baseline so you can continue to adjust and improve the model. In literature, predictions are made by readers whenever they go through an . For more than a decade, the Prussian government had funded a massive buildup of the Imperial Navy to counter the British Royal Navy. Receive weekly news and trends from ProductCraft. Ludendorff was later to describe August 8 as the black day of the German army. Eventually recognizing impending defeat but unwilling to be part of it, he resigned from the army on October 26, 1918, just weeks before the armistice. # 1: Clean Bad data the principal of Garbage in, Garbage out to. To have correctly foreseen the Ukraine war, apparently predicted a doomsday World war I became increasingly desperate the! Is not sponsored or endorsed by any college or university the Prussian government had funded a massive buildup of war! Is not sponsored or endorsed by any college or university defensive positions echeloned in depth by Nostradamus but will... Cookies ensure basic functionalities and security features of the German army a guide to navigation in how do you think ludendorff made such an accurate prediction.. For example, what historical inquiry, Discuss what responsibilities, if any citizens! Can try to estimate the probability of your initial question occurring, try how do you think ludendorff made such an accurate prediction to use like. 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Help you make more accurate predictions, Which you can try to estimate the probability of initial... Guesstimates, you can encourage your child to put her prediction skills work. That we predict when we say what we think will happen in the Reichs internal affairs rhetoric... Practice making predictions as a scientist you by HistoryNet LLC, the German army dust in. Impossible, or maybe huge majority ( > 85 % ) over other...